Farmer John #3: Durbin Feltman’s Track to the Majors & Trading Chavis
This week's Farmer John segment is going to be a little different than usual. Instead of handing out awards, I'm going to look at the trade possibilities and offer up my opinion on the future of the farm system and the bullpen.
Let's start quickly with Durbin Feltman. After the draft, the unanimous decision was that this kid has a chance to make a meaningful contribution to the Red Sox bullpen this year. His stuff is big league ready, and he's an experienced relief pitcher thanks to his time as a closer at TCU. Those are two major traits that already make him easy to plug into any bullpen, let alone a contending one. So far this year, he has pitched in 9 innings, allowing one earned run while striking 18 and only allowing one walk. For a guy that throws 98, that kind of command from an A ball player is unheard of. Next up for Feltman is a brief trip to Salem for High A ball, followed by presumably a short stint in AA with the Sea Dogs. If all goes according to planned, Feltman could easily find his way onto the September roster for the Red Sox, and offer another strong right-handed option out of the pen.
The bullpen is an area of concern, if there even is one for this year's team. The pen's shortage of lefties has been outlined by many, but I think it's a misconception. The power bats in the AL that the Red Sox could face in the playoffs are Stanton, Judge, Correa, Bregman, Encarnación, Altuve, Cruz, and Hanniger. Those guys are all righties. The lefties that could influence the need to go after a LHP at the deadline are Didi, Yonder Alonso, Brantley, and Kyle Seager. I don't know about you, but I'm a hell of a lot more scared of the righties in the AL than the lefties. Feltman will help bolster the pen come September, but the plethora of hard-throwing righties like Brasier, Kelly, Workman, Barnes and Kimbrel is certainly a cast of characters that can work through a challenging righty-heavy lineup.
That being said, we could see Beeks as a lefty specialist come the post-season. I think trading Beeks would be a big mistake. He's posted a 2.89 ERA at Pawtucket this year with a 1.09 WHIP. Anyone doing that at the AAA level certainly has the potential to be an effective pitcher for a big league team. Similarly, Bobby Poyner has shown that he can be effective out of the bullpen as a lefty specialist. These two together could offer an effective solution to the lack of lefties in the bullpen come September. All things considered, I think that shelling out for a guy like Britton would be unnecessary. Instead, I think finding a solid option for second should be a priority.
The Red Sox have more 3B in the system than they know what to do with. Between the likes of Chavis, Dalec, and Diaz, there is plenty of talent as a back-up for Devers at third. I think that the Red Sox top prospects list has become a little bit inflated by the sheer lack of talent in comparison to many systems at the moment, and it's time to sell some of these guys. I think that should be Chavis. For the club's 'top prospect' Chavis, the Red Sox could get a NICE package. I think DD should target the Twins. Dozier's exaggerated uppercut swing for a righty would suit Fenway well, and there are plenty of relievers that could be packaged in return for Chavis being sent to Minnesota. Ockimey or Travis are both options to trade, as there is not really a place for both guys in the system for the next few years with Travis big league ready and Ockimey playing in Pawtucket.
Why should the Red Sox trade Chavis? Because of Bobby Dalbec. Chavis is still serving his 80 game suspension for PEDs, and a regression after what was a monster 2017 is imminent. Dalbec, on the other hand, is hitting an incredible .255/.370/.557 with 23 HRs and 76 RBIs in 95 games. The 23-year-old out of Arizona will most certainly finish the year in Portland, and his impressive 2018 has put him in line to make an impact at the big league level as soon as next year.
The bottom line is that the Red Sox farm system is deceivingly shallow this year. It's easy to look at the inflated ERAs and missed games at the top of the prospect list and think that there is no promise in the system. Ockimey, Dalbec, Beeks, and Flores have all had great seasons. Obviously, a strong recovery for Groome from TJ is something to hope for. This year's draft class of Feltman, Decker, Casas, and 11th round steal Northcutt have generated the most excitement in a while.
The issue of acquiring a relief pitcher is something that the Red Sox will have to tiptoe around during this trade deadline. I think the Red Sox will remain in talks for the elite names up for sale, and give up some of the farm system's top prospects. The Red Sox have lots of guys at the top of the prospect list that has posted poor ERAs but own really good stuff. Those guys should be options to trade, but not for less than they should be traded. My ideal scenario would be giving up Chavis and maybe another prospect for Dozier and reliever like Pressley.